| Abstract: | We exploit Decision Networks (DN) for the analysis
of attack/defense scenarios. DN extend both the modeling and the
analysis capabilities of formalisms based on Attack Trees, which
are the main reference model in such a context. In particular,
DN can naturally address uncertainty at every level, including the
interaction level of attacks and countermeasures, making possible
the modeling of situations which are not limited to Boolean
combinations of events. Furthermore, inference algorithms can be
exploited for a probabilistic analysis with the goal of assessing the
risk and the importance of the attacks (with respect to specific sets
of countermeasures), and selecting the optimal set (with respect
to a specific objective function) of countermeasures to activate. |
